中国反制特朗普加税！底气何在？
What gives China the confidence
to handle Trump's tariffs？

I've been on the Guangdong Foreign Affairs website because I actually believed that the Canton Fair, starting this week in Guangzhou would be a disaster - it's not what I expected.

我浏览了广东省人民政府外事办公室的官方网站，因为我原本以为这周在广州开幕的广交会会是一场灾难——实际情况却出乎我的意料。

Clearly there's a residual overlap, people booked this fair before they knew what Trump would be doing to China's trade but nevertheless, I'd have thought that many people would cancel - it's absolutely not what they're doing.

显然还存在一定的滞后效应——参展商预订广交会展位时还不知道特朗普会对中美贸易采取什么措施。但即便如此，我原以为会有很多人取消参展——实际情况却完全相反。

But first of all, let's look at what My adopted city, Zhongshan, which is only about 80 kilometres away from the Canton Fair is doing. This year, 289 Zhongshan enterprises are represented at the fair, the largest number ever.

但首先，让我们来看看我的第二故乡中山市（距离广交会仅约80公里）的表现：本届广交会中山参展企业达289家，创历史新高。

And, along with other cities in Guangdong, Zhongshan has recently rolled out several new sets of policy measures.

此外，与广东其他城市一样，中山近期也陆续出台了一系列新的政策措施。

The measures are related to technology and innovations and the main purpose is to boost business opportunities as well as attract top talent.

这些政策措施聚焦科技创新，主要目的是开拓商业机遇并吸引高端人才。

The city will provide a maximum subsidy of 10 million yuan for national and provincial major innovation platforms, and a maximum subsidy of 2 million yuan for newly-recognized provincial new-type R&D institutions in the optoelectronics and optics sectors.

例如在推动光电光学产业做大做强方面，中山市将对国家级和省级重大创新平台给予最高1000万元补助，对新认定的省级新型研发机构给予最高200万元补助。

But it gets better, when people worry that China isn't doing enough they really need to look at what is on offer even in the smaller cities, because a maximum subsidy of 30 million yuan will be granted to optoelectronics and optics companies that introduce innovative research teams on a trial basis.

但更令人振奋的是，当人们担忧中国做得不够时，真应该看看即便在中小城市提供的扶持政策——对试点引进创新科研团队的光电企业，中山市将给予最高3000万元的资助。

And, if you're a returned Chinese wanting to start businesses in these fields here, a maximum start-up fund of 2 million yuan will be available, with venue support of 500 square meters for up to 4 years.

还有，如果你是留学归国人员，想在光电光学领域创业发展，你最高可获得200万元的创业启动经费，并享受最长4年500平方米的场地支持。

That's the policy in the optical field but there's even more good news - Zhongshan released another policy to further promote the development of the specialized, refined, differential and innovative（SRDI） enterprises. What does that mean?

光电领域的政策已然给力，但中山市还有更多利好——最新出台了专项政策，进一步促进"专精特新"企业发展。这究竟意味着什么？

You may get between 3 and 10 million, for setting up SRDI research centres with national qualification here. I could go on, in fact, I will, there are 15 more policies aimed at stabilising foreign trade and promoting growth to, every aspect of Zhongshan's industries have been considered and So, clearly, there's a lot going on that we're not reading about in Western media.

在中山设立国家级“高精特新”（SRDI）研发中心或可获得300万至1000万元奖励——而这仅仅是个开始。事实上，当地还出台了15项稳外贸促增长政策，覆盖全市各产业领域。显然，这些政策举措，西方媒体都鲜少报道。

I'm seeing a lot of reports about how China is struggling, but the statistics here make me question whether they are exaggerating.

尽管西方大量报道中国经济的困境，但这里的统计数据让我不由质疑它们是否夸大其词。

China's trade overall in the first quarter of this year has exceeded expectations, part of that would have been because of uncertainty in Trump's policies, getting orders onto ships before announcements were made. Now, we're looking at a totally different scenario, buyers aren't reducing their orders, they're simply holding them up until they have some certainty - not just about whether or not they can get them into the USA, but much more likely about whether Trump will change his mind again, or hedging their bets with deliveries to third parties who will add their cost and the those additional costs, if products ever get into the USA, will be passed to the poor consumers.

今年一季度中国外贸整体表现超预期，部分原因或与特朗普政策的不确定性有关——许多企业赶在政策公布前就完成了订单装运。当前形势已截然不同——采购商并未削减订单，而是持观望态度，等待政策明朗化。他们不仅需要考虑货物能否进入美国市场，更得提防特朗普再次变卦。不少企业正通过第三方渠道分摊风险，但这些转口贸易进入美国市场附加的成本，最终都将转嫁给美国普通消费者。

Guangdong's numbers alone are incredible, they've exported more and they've imported more - copper, coal and crude oil are all massively increased but guess which country is not getting a share of that!  

单是广东一省的数据就令人惊叹——进出口双增长！铜、煤、原油进口量激增，但猜猜哪个国家没能分到这杯羹？

My adopted hometown Zhongshan City, achieved a total import and export volume of 44.95 billion yuan from January to February this year, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. Among them, the export volume reached 39.75 billion yuan, ranking fifth in the province. Last year, Zhongshan's foreign trade import and export volume exceeded 280 billion yuan, also setting a new historical record. Among them, the export volume to Latin American countries soared by 32.4% year-on-year.

我所居住的中山市今年1-2月进出口总量达449.5亿元，同比增长7.9%；其中，出口额达到397.5亿元，排名全省第5。去年，中山外贸进出口规模突破2800亿元，也创下历史新高。其中对拉美国家出口额同比激增32.4%。

In the first quarter, China's imports and exports with the countries and regions involved in Belt and Road Initiative reached a new high for the same period in history, with a growth rate 0.9 percentage points higher than the overall average. Among them, ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner, with imports and exports increasing by 7.1% year-on-year, and its share of China's total foreign trade rose to 16.6%. Imports and exports with the five Central Asian countries increased by 6.9%. This is what diversification looks like.

海关数据显示，今年第一季度，中国对共建“一带一路”国家进出口规模再创历史同期新高，增速高于整体0.9个百分点，其中，东盟继续稳居中国第一大贸易伙伴地位，进出口同比增长7.1%，占中国整体外贸的比重提升至16.6%，对中亚五国进出口增长6.9%。这就是多元化布局的真实写照。

It isn't going to be an easy transition handling Trump's tariffs but China's policies provide stability, certainty and predictability in an unpredictable world. I'd say that China, Guangdong and Zhongshan are all in a tough spot right now, but well placed to handle whatever this global uncertainty throws at them. 

应对特朗普的关税政策并非易事，但中国的政策在这个充满不确定性的世界中提供了稳定性、确定性和可预见性。我可以说，中国、广东和中山目前都面临着严峻挑战，但完全有能力应对全球不确定性带来的任何冲击。